During the week of November 14, online retailers will run teaser holiday promotions to induce early shopping behaviors. But the week of December 5 will be the most important week for online retailers, strategically speaking, according to NetElixir.
The company is predicting that some large retailers will test creative promotional strategies during in early December and said mid-size and smaller businesses will need to be “nimble and ready” with their game plans.
NetElixir, a digital marketing agency based in New Jersey, also said data forecasts suggest that aggregate ecommerce sales will experience a 6-7% year-over-year increase in the November to December holiday shopping period, with total online sales likely to exceed 20% of total retail sales in the nation.
Intriguingly, NetElixir said their could be a second Amazon Prime Day this year in October (the retail giant had held its annual Prime Day shopping event in June).
NetElixir founder and CEO Udayan Bose has been predicting holiday shopping ecommerce sales for 10 years leveraging proprietary customer analytics technology. LXRInsights tracks and analyzes the real-time data of approximately 75 retail customers, ranging from small-to-mid sized businesses to enterprises.
Bose usually releases his predictions later into October, but said he wanted to get a head start on getting the word out. “We hope it signifies to retailers that we need to be preparing now for all possible challenges and obstacles we’re likely to face as consumer buying behaviors continue to shift erratically,” he said.
Shipping cut-off dates and product availability will be the key limiting factors this year, and NetElixir predicted the following days would experience the highest year-over-year increase in volume (exceeding 12% each day):
November 21, November 22, November 26, November 29, December 5, December 6, December 12, December 13, and December 14.
NetElixir published the following weekly calendar for the online holiday-shopping period for 2021:
Week of November 14: “We can expect to see some online retailers run teaser holiday promotions to induce early shopping behaviors. This activity will lead to Thanksgiving week’s promotional drive.”
Week of November 21 & November 28: “Deep discounting will occur throughout the entire week and will not be limited to Black Friday deals. Retailers should look to get creative with category-level and product-specific promotions.”
Week of December 5: “NetElixir predicts this to be the most important week (strategically) for online retailers. We anticipate some large retailers to test creative promotional strategies during this week. Mid-size and smaller businesses will need to be nimble and ready with their gameplans.”
Week of December 12: “BOPIS commerce will surge. Most retailers will lower their digital marketing spend this week, as the ground shipping cut-off date for Christmas will most likely be December 14. Inventory issues are likely.”
Week of December 19: “Last-minute mobile purchases are expected to spike from December 19 to December 21. BOPIS will continue to be important. Inventory issues are likely.”
Week of December 26: “Deep sales discounts on post-holiday inventory will influence the “Me-Buy” week, which will see more consumers shopping for themselves.”
More information on the methodology for the predictions can be found in the company press release on PRNewswire.com.