Online sellers will be squeezed between holiday shoppers looking for deals and discounts, and shipping carriers who are instituting peak-season fees, including USPS, UPS, and FedEx – as well as Amazon’s FBA, MCF, and Buy with Prime fulfillment services.
USPS is instituting peak rates beginning October 5 through January 18, 2026, for both retail and commercial domestic competitive parcels: Priority Mail Express (PME), Priority Mail (PM), USPS Ground Advantage, and Parcel Select.
UPS published its peak-season demand surcharges in late August, which take effect from September 28 through January 16, 2026.
FedEx is instituting peak demand surcharges from September 29 through January 18, 2026.
Amazon is instituting holiday peak fulfillment fees from October 15 through January 14, 2026 for Fulfillment by Amazon (FBA), Remote fulfillment with FBA, Multi-Channel fulfillment (MCF), and Buy with Prime.
Consumers look for discounts year-round and especially during the holiday shopping season. According to Mastercard Economics Institute, “In 2025, holiday shoppers will be searching for value amid broader economic uncertainty. Their decisions will be driven in part by the health of the labor market and by tariff-related price increases.”
The data is based on SpendingPulse insights, which represent in-store and online spending across all forms of payment. Mastercard Economics Institute said that in the face of tariff-related price increases, consumers could respond in the following ways:
1) purchasing these items anyway, boosting overall nominal sales growth,
2) substituting cheaper goods (“trading down”), or
3) spending more on services or other goods that are more insulated from tariffs.
Knowing buyers factor in price plus shipping, small sellers in particular will be challenged this year, with limited power to negotiate with shipping carriers.
