Ina Steiner EcommerceBytes Blog
News and insight focusing on ecommerce.
by Ina Steiner, Editor of EcommerceBytes.com
Wed Dec 12 2018 14:25:09

Analyst Sees More Stagnant Growth Ahead for eBay

By: Ina Steiner

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A Wall Street analyst sees more stagnant growth ahead for eBay. CNBC reports that Morgan Stanley analyst Brian Nowak downgraded the stock over concerns of low growth in the coming year.

But it isn't shareholders' teeth-gnashing that concerns us - rather, how this will impact readers. Low growth in Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) means the pie isn't growing for eBay sellers.

Nowak said he now expects eBay to grow "low to mid single digits in 2019," according to the CNBC report.

As we've previously reported, eBay CEO Devin Wenig is trying to milk sellers as a way to boost revenue. Specifically, the "nascent earnings opportunities" of managed payments and advertising, as Nowak called them.

The article's kill shot: "Morgan Stanley sees eBay's domestic gross merchandise value growing between 0 and 1 percent in the first half of 2019 and just 2 percent for the whole year."

Read the full article on CNBC, and let us know if you see any actions eBay is taking to boost sales growth that could revive the marketplace. What's a seller to do?



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Readers Comments

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This user has validated their user name. by: NoMoreEbay

Wed Dec 12 14:41:21 2018

"Read the full article on CNBC, and let us know if you see any actions eBay is taking to boost sales growth that could revive the marketplace."

They did change their logo colors.

They had an abysmal 2018. Why should 2019 be an different. As long as Wenig is at the helm it's only going to get worse.

Heck, even the Chinese are getting fed up with all of the constant changes and seller bleeding crud.

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by: Grady This user has validated their user name.

Wed Dec 12 15:18:58 2018

There is nothing in there we don't already know. There will be no turnaround. It's a decade too late even if they could find the talent.

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by: pace306 This user has validated their user name.

Wed Dec 12 16:08:10 2018

I sent this one in (and quoted it 2x) ...

MAYBE, just maybe Wall Street is FINALLY getting a clue as to the ABYSMAL failures of eBay and its management.

eBays policies of "screw the seller" MAY have finally come home to roost, maybe.

Its Xmas (I looked at the calendar to be sure) and sales are pathetic.

Didnt they hire some new (circus) clown to fix things? Wasnt he going to fix things for sellers?

And wheres the Sleeping Grifter during all this?

eBay isnt growing, the numbers they give WS are made up. Theres NO GROWTH and what little sales there are spread out over the sellers that still remain.

YES (tool) there are exceptions (as there is to everything in life) but this is important to the REST OF US, who rely on eBay management to make the RIGHT choices.

Like Nelson on the SImpsons "told you so, ha ha" .... shame is - if you are a smaller seller that relys on eBay - its certainly NOT funny

Perminate Link for Analyst Sees More Stagnant Growth Ahead for eBay   Analyst Sees More Stagnant Growth Ahead for eBay

by: sasikat9 This user has validated their user name.

Wed Dec 12 17:33:18 2018

DING DING,,,,,KNOCK KNOCK....Yea think wallstreet is finally taking notice.....DING DING,,,,,KNOCK KNOCK

VERY DOUBTFUL....AS THEY CAN'T SEE THE PROBLEM AS LONG AS THE BOTTOMLINE LOOKS GOOD.

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This user has validated their user name. by: iBuyers

Wed Dec 12 18:15:15 2018

eBay should focus on the pre-owned market place and less on the new. Let Amazon have that market. The pre-owned market is more than enough to capitalize on.  

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by: ebayout This user has validated their user name.

Wed Dec 12 18:15:31 2018

Really odd...last 3-4 multi-hundred point dips in the market, ebay was actually in plus territory.

Today, amid a decent bounce, ebay lost a couple cents.

Maybe the hens are headed home.

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by: Snapped This user has validated their user name.

Wed Dec 12 19:04:11 2018

Um...isn't the the phrase "stagnant growth" an oxymoron?

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This user has validated their user name. by: The End

Wed Dec 12 19:13:45 2018

"Numbers Guy, aka Captain Obvious, sees more mold growing on the rotted remains of Ebay ".
I'm saddened by the fact that UNLISTABLE stocks go undefined.
A business that can not directly produce tangible goods for consumption should not be listed  on the stock market.

Perminate Link for Analyst Sees More Stagnant Growth Ahead for eBay   Analyst Sees More Stagnant Growth Ahead for eBay

This user has validated their user name. by: iheartjacksparrow

Wed Dec 12 19:26:20 2018

"We under-estimated how quickly core marketplaces would deteriorate...." Maybe Mr. Nowak should have talked to some of the long-time sellers who post on this blog.

eBay is probably hoping that the money they make from Managed Payments is going to bail them out. But with constant complaints of low sales, there's only so much sellers are going to tolerate, especially when eBay continues to find new ways to gouge sellers, and won't do anything about liar buyers.

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by: ThebigR This user has validated their user name.

Wed Dec 12 19:45:36 2018

The MP promoters are just getting pounded they are in the below basement level as far as sales go. One I watch used to have 60 - 80 sales a month so far as of 12 - 12 2 sales...

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This user has validated their user name. by: toolguy

Wed Dec 12 19:57:43 2018

Morgan Stanley analyst Brian Nowak

Wow eBay nose dived a whole penny on his report

Then eBay went up 16 cents in after hours trading

My guess is eBay's buying back more stock with all the cash they're making this Quarter. . . .

I still wonder why eBay hasn't offered a video service to sellers for .25 cents per listing?

It's a revenue stream that's UNTAPPED

Wouldn't a buyer to to see & hear an item they are interested in instead of just 2 dimensional pictures?

Amazon doesn't offer such a feature and eBay could be 1st on something new.

Back in the old days I would insert Youtube video's into my listings. . .

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by: jimcooncat This user has validated their user name.

Wed Dec 12 20:26:21 2018

That ''Gross Merchandise Volume'' is owned by you and me, not eBay. We can remove it in the blink of an eye. Wall St. pays for a server setup and hot air. Might as well buy Bitcoin for all the underlying value.

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by: Chicago48 This user has validated their user name.

Thu Dec 13 04:12:38 2018

Sellers are selling more peer to peer (quicker cash, no fees).  For example, Craigslist (always mentioned in Judge Judy shows) or Nextdoor....even FB Marketplace.
Ebay needs to have two sites:  Ebay Auctions and Ebay Fixed Price.  Auctions would be for collectibles and antiques, just like in the old days.  And FP would be just that -- FP, like Mercari and some other sites do.  Have a "best offer" button to negotiate.

Perminate Link for Analyst Sees More Stagnant Growth Ahead for eBay   Analyst Sees More Stagnant Growth Ahead for eBay

by: Chicago48 This user has validated their user name.

Thu Dec 13 04:15:31 2018

"I still wonder why eBay hasn't offered a video service to sellers for .25 cents per listing?
It's a revenue stream that's UNTAPPED"
Or better yet, they can add fees if a seller wanted to INSERT A VIDEO, like they used to do.  I would much rather see a short clip (15-30seconds) of somebody demo'ing their vacuum cleaner, or their car running, than stock pictures.  EB could charge an extra 25c to insert the video.
Instead they keep penalizing sellers for below standard sales (4%) or BIN auctions.

Perminate Link for Analyst Sees More Stagnant Growth Ahead for eBay   Analyst Sees More Stagnant Growth Ahead for eBay

This user has validated their user name. by: Rexford

Thu Dec 13 06:48:17 2018

When folks who claim that they don't have a credit card start giving financial and business advice I chuckle.

eBay will get a boost when shipping rates go up in 2019 due to the fact that they steal from sellers' shipping.  Wenig will exploit that. It will mean very little. You can't destroy an ecosystem and expect the cesspool that is left to flourish.

At what point do eBay's Board of Directors wake up?  As sales continue to be abysmal for most sellers more and more will flee and the problem will only exacerbate.

Perminate Link for Analyst Sees More Stagnant Growth Ahead for eBay   Analyst Sees More Stagnant Growth Ahead for eBay

by: Snapped This user has validated their user name.

Thu Dec 13 06:56:57 2018

From the linked article, the suddenly clued in analyst sees an "unlikely" 30% share price target increase resulting from (a minimum need for) 3% GMV growth because eBay is...

"...cutting back on marketing spend to focus on profitability over growth.....".

That's not really a surprise to anybody trying to sell something on eBay over the past decade, as has been noted over the past decade of course.  Plenty of "noise" has ensued.  And it certainly explains every action, and lack of action eBay has taken since, from increasing their 'take' with actual and 'hidden' fee increases and reduced support for service and infrastructure, through 'monitizing' every mouse click, to the latest round of layoffs.  

And where does their 'profit' come from?  Their seller's wallets.  

There's your 'kill shot'.  Self inflicted.  

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by: Whatever This user has validated their user name.

Thu Dec 13 07:15:19 2018

Sales are so horrible now I can't actually stay anymore - this year my sales are down a whopping 60%! December 31st marks the death of yet another store for me. So within in 1 year I'll have closed 2 stores and have just one remaining. And that store is simply being held up by an Amazon seller who is using me as a drop shipper. My eyes are wide open now - going to fill out the "Sell on Amazon" paperwork which I said I would NEVER do. This Amazon seller is copying everything right down to the photo - doubling my price (which totally confounds me - and selling things like hotcakes - go figure - I do all the work and he makes all the money.  So be it - I give up - off to Amazon. After 20 years on eBay I'm leaving and what did I get? A gold watch? no. A retirement plan? No. Health insurance? No. Stupid me - I've been working for Walmart and was too stupid to get it.  Got bills to pay and put food on the table. It's nothing personal eBay - it's just business.

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by: Chicago48 This user has validated their user name.

Thu Dec 13 07:46:24 2018

Watch this video on Youtube, she sort of explains it:
eBay Sales Down? They are Now Targeting Direct from Brand & Authorized Sellers Programs!

Perminate Link for Analyst Sees More Stagnant Growth Ahead for eBay   Analyst Sees More Stagnant Growth Ahead for eBay

by: eastwestphoto This user has validated their user name.
Web Site

Thu Dec 13 09:55:59 2018

Factors effecting ebay Sales:
1. New IRS rules ie bussiness Vs. hobby
2. State tax rules changing
3. ebay website glitches severe
4. bad search system
5. Seller fees way to high!
6. eBay is far to slow at improving
7. ebay does NOT advertise enough

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by: JohnGermaine This user has validated their user name.

Thu Dec 13 11:20:42 2018

Not surprised at all. When it ''looks'' like the CEO bonus is the ONLY THING that drives absurd changes and sellers are fleeing to any place else, you don't have to be a rocket scientist to see the handwriting on the wall!!

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