eBay Is Performing Significantly Better than Expected

by: acc756

@Marie "That isn't "padding", that is what GMV is.  It is the sales before ANY adjustments."

The 50+ compromised accounts I have reported were (and a few still are) allowed to continue fraudulently selling for months. One of them even had negative feedback from several months prior that said "sent to me using someone else's credit card".  I pointed that feedback out every time I contacted support and yet it still took 2 more months for them to shut it down.

All of the fraudulent sales that occurred in the months that eBay dragged their feet are included in GMV and they shouldn't have been allowed to happen in the first place.  It's the same thing with the millions of "banned" products that were allowed to be sold and then eBay cancelled after sale.

I'm not talking about "adjustments" like normal cancellations and refunds between legitimate buyers and sellers. I'm talking about eBay choosing to allow fraudulent and/or prohibited activities to continue to the point of sale, instead of shutting it down prior to that point.  Whether you call that "padding" or not, it coincidentally benefits eBay when it comes time to report GMV (which tends to affect their stock prices).

To me it's not so much a semantics argument about how they calculate GMV, it's about calling out that at times it seems that eBay prioritizes GMV over other concerns such as user experience (both buyer and seller) and security.

Sure they get the "sale" and can crow about GMV exploding, but what damage is being done to real people in the process and just how much of this shady stuff do you think people will tolerate before abandoning eBay all together?

Every user who has had their account hacked, tried to buy face masks only to have the listing canceled after the fact and been left in limbo about the sale and their money, or received a box of rocks instead of merchandise (either for a sale or return) is a user who is likely not going to come back to the site.

And that is why @Toolguy should care about this too.  It doesn't do any good for eBay to show your rivet sets in searches if the people who want to buy rivet sets refuse to buy on eBay.

They need to stop playing games with GMV and start getting serious about cleaning up the site.

by: NoMoreEbay

On ebay, the act of a buyer ending an auction or listing without the exchange of a commodity and currency is not a 'sale' and should not be counted in GMV. It's no different than me calling someone on Craigslist and saying I'll take it.

by: ebayout

"Demand strength is driven by increased organic traffic, better marketing efficiency, and higher platform conversion."
Translation: "Our GMV is self-inflationary. It, like...just happens."

by: thievesBay

@NoMoreEbay Nope, a completed auction is supposed to be a contract to buy. I guarantee you they sneak it into GMV even if the buyer doesn't pay. This is eBay after all. They'll find any way to cheat or steal possible. They couldn't care less how anything ends up as long as they collect or can add fake numbers in some way to their totals.

by: toolguy

@ thievesBay

Really the only thing that matters to eBay or any seller/business is the bottom line!

How much PROFIT did eBay make, as they say "nothing else matters"

When I buy on eBay the LAST thing on my mind is eBay's GMV ~ LOL

by: CanBrit

How have they completely forgotten the reason that eBay was a success in the beginning?

Not every eCommerce business will survive no matter how long they've been around. It comes down to continual operational and technological skill. The site is a technical disaster. Their methodology is a disaster. There are no worse fraudsters than eBay themselves.

How sick is it that a company applauds and pats themselves on the back for their success. They are ignoring that one of the worst crisis' the world has faced in nearly a century, has been the major player in all of this.

Even companies who've been around for a decade fall by the wayside if they can't maintain their excellence. It happens all the time.

by: Dellthorpe

Any moron knows the only reason ebay did good fourth quarter is people stuck home with the shut in in effect. Come July 31, 2020 ebay will b back to stealing and conning the sellers to make a few quick bucks with the help of papal their partner in crime.
Most people think ebay shut down years ago and r shocked to hear they r still in business. I tell people only two type of buyers and sellers on ebay - those that have been conned and those that will b conned.
I like the selection on ebay but if all the buyers left and went to another site I would leave ebay in a second. There r some great sellers on ebay and ebay does not deserve them but its good to buy from them.
Maybe with Devin gone they will stop stealing from the sellers with paypals help.
Most at ebay and paypal could not pour water out of their shoe with the directions on the heel.
So they r looking for some more marks so the r going to advertise again - good luck.
Ebay/Payapl  will always b a POS organization that does not deserve good buyers and sellers. I never give feedback ebay and the sellers should kiss my shoes that I buy, instantly pay and do  not steal from them.
Ebay RIP.

by: DevilishlySarky

Of course its performing better than expected .....
When you live in a town and the bus service goes splat , you either walk ,or get a taxi .
Amazon has had issues during the lockdown ; sometimes quoting months for delivery of certain items.
Ebay doesnt have the same problems , they are not a fulfilment service , not everything is new , and its not in centralised locations .
Plus no one knew what to expect,during lockdown - if your expectations are low , and ebays have been low for four years now  , anything is an improvement on stagnation  

by: Philo

Here is my speculation on the chicken/egg.

-Earlier this year they laid off 100+ people- cost savings related to stubhub sale
-reduced tech support- cost savings
-covid people are listing stuff once again, thus the sales.  Not people buying the same stagnant junk
-google companies that are hiring and you will see- ebay, zoom, and others

by: comments

And they are squandering many second chances. No matter how much I want to buy on ebay I know that virtually everything is misrepresented by shipping location and thus shipping time,

Most orders are fulfilled by amazon regardless of the new rules that forbid it,  

Lowest price plus shipping searches are no longer possible due the the "to" pricing . Sandisk Extreme 32GB memory card searched by price plus shipping lowest $5(1gb card)-$50( 32gb card).......so really much search only yielded me 1gb cards with no way to take them out of the equation. Even dutch auctions made more sense.

by: Marty2020

OMG! in the past few weeks I purchase stuff on ebay that I routinely purchased at walmart and would normally never purchased on ebay. Just to illustrate:
3x sensodyne toothpaste: $18, nivea body lotion: $10, trident chewing gums: $18. Moreover of the stimulus check I purchased about $800 worth of items on ebay for resale.

What a bunch of idiots.

by: toolguy

@Marty2020

You must have got GREAT deals or you wouldn't have bought them.

YOU BOUGHT IT ON EBAY ~ Congratulations

by: unsuck

"You know very well that it doesn't mean that Ebay has been hacked..."

I said, "EBAY stated there was no data breach...".

There appears to be a significant spike in compromised eBay accounts (seller accounts like the ones acc756 reported, as well as buyer accounts, often apparently from inactive users with good feedback history).

At the end of May, eBay introduced new anti-fraud port-scanning measures, as reported by several security publications, apparently in attempt to tighten security.

As a result, there were many *rumors* that eBay experienced a 'data breach', including one user (@SpursNewsForum) who Tweeted, "a security advisor told me tonight #eBay have a widespread data breach". When we asked eBay to clarify, eBay stated they did not experience a data-breach.

Now a 'data breach' suggests bad guys have infiltrated a company's network/systems and got access to data. What I am submitting, is that fraudsters have devised other ways (which no doubt probably include common phishing techniques like mentioned) to access eBay accounts (perhaps using the same techniques used in last year's massive eBay fraud ring in the UK, but that's just speculation).

~~~~~~~~~~

On GMV acc776's post is really excellent and I couldn't have said it better (or I would have).

GMV is critical to EBAY as a core metric that underpins EBAY's business model, thus EBAY is highly incentivized to invigorate GMV figures reported to the Street.

Thus, behaviors that no 1st-party merchant would want to happen on their own site are often allowed to occur on eBay with less urgency to mitigate, largely since eBay doesn't own the inventory.

TMF posted a blog yesterday in a similar vein as this ECB post titled "eBay's Upped Q2 Guidance Is Great, But 1 Big Question Remains" asking the critical question, "how many of these six million newcomers are going to remain regular users".

Incidentally this is a similar response I got from the founder of a leading equity management firm last Wednesday morning after EBAY cut their press release. After remarking out how COVID (and apparently the looting) has been good for EBAY, responded a lift of 6 million buyers on 174 was "meh" and and that we need to see if eBay can hold onto growth after things come back to normal. Completely on-point.

Interestingly, ebay.com traffic (as reported by Compete data through May 20) was 914.8M total visits, up 5.47% from the month prior, but already decelerating from April, so we shall see.

by: NoMoreEbay

''Ebay shares rally over the past month but analysts question whether COVID-19-related growth can last''

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ebay-shares-rally-over
-the-past-month-but-analysts-question-whether-covid-19-related-growth-can-last-2020-06-08?mod=mw_latestnews

by: LasVagueness

My fervent wish is that eBay prospers and in doing so lift all boats with their rising tide.

by: acc756

Also of note from the press release:

"approximately 6 million new and reactivated buyers added in April and May."

Emphasis on "reactivated".  Compromised accounts that were old/dormant are most likely being counted in those numbers as "reactivated" accounts.

eBay lumps it all in together, so there is no way to distinguish how many of those users really are new, how many were inactive accounts legitimately being reactivated by the account owner, and how many were reactivated by hacking for fraudulent purposes.

by: Toledo Maude

I had a few bright moments for sales on eBay for February, March, and April.  I suspect that collectors with the $1200 Fed bonus in their pockets were happy to spend it in April.  But with the bonus money now gone, it is back to ''dying on the vine'' eBay.  

by: acc756

@ToolGuy ''When I buy on eBay the LAST thing on my mind is eBay's GMV ~ LOL''

It would be a mistake to believe that the people making decisions at eBay are driven by the same motivations, have the same things on their minds, or stand to profit/benefit only from the same things that individual buyers and sellers on the platform do.

As UnsuckeBay pointed out, GMV is a critical aspect of eBay's business model, especially in regard to Wall Street.  Just because many eBay users don't care about it or maybe even know what it is doesn't mean it should be dismissed as a possible motivating factor for eBay's decision makers.

by: I Must be Crazy

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to recognize that eBay's strong performance is directly related to people being locked up with nothing to do but surf the internet. My sales have been spectacular. Record setting months. Yes things have been trending up for the last 6 months, driven by increased listings posted. But I have struggled to keep up during the period of the lockdown.

I can see the drop in sales beginning the weekend of May 16th, when states began opening. So far in June, my sales are down about 3/4 from their peak in April.

Shoot even the technical issues that somehow plague eBay every year around the end of May into June are back in full swing. We are entering the summer slow season; which I expect to be exacerbated by restless people who have been locked down itching to get out. They won't be logging into eBay anytime soon. Those who are at home, the unfortunate millions that will be unemployed and out of money once we hit the fiscal cliff at the end of July.

But all of that will be the explanation for the cratering of GMV over the remainder of the year. In the meantime, the "wiz kids" running eBay will brag and take the credit for unexpected gains during the covid wave.

by: ebayout

Somebody dissuade me that this surge is not the equivalent of the girl in "Animal House" flying through the kid's window and landing on his bed.
"Thank you, God" was his reaction...not so much would have been eBay's.