Ina Steiner EcommerceBytes Blog
News and insight focusing on ecommerce.
by Ina Steiner, Editor of EcommerceBytes.com
Tue Feb 11 2020 14:43:35

eBay CEO Takes a Vertical Approach to Compete with Rivals

By: Ina Steiner

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eBay is looking at getting back to its roots and is willing to experiment more in vertical markets, according to eBay interim CEO Scott Schenkel. The strategy comes as eBay faces growing competition in various niches, such as the sneaker category where a marketplace now headed by the former head of eBay Marketplaces Scott Cutler is engaging buyers.

The chief executive gave a presentation at the Goldman Sachs Technology and Internet Conference on Tuesday, February 11, 2020, where he also discussed two dynamics that negatively impacted the company's sales growth in 2019: state sales tax collection requirements and reduced marketing spend.

Schenkel said he hadn't expected 30-plus states to roll out sales tax laws so rapidly and expects it will have an impact in 2020 as well. That was a reference to laws that put the burden of collecting and remitting sales tax on marketplaces rather than third-party sellers.

When it comes to marketing, he said eBay proactively reduced the marketing spend last year, and he referenced the recent reorganization of the marketing team. As eBay reached the end of the frontier of bringing in new buyers, it pivoted back to spending more on those buyers to get them to activate more. "It will negatively impact a little bit of the active-buyer growth and will impact GMV a little bit," he said.

He doesn't want to leave growth on the table, but he doesn’t want to go overboard in "pushing the efficient frontier," he said.

The ethos of eBay is the "enthusiast buyer" and the "value seeker." They tend to index towards collectibles, vintage, last year's model - it's the "spectrum of value" eBay provides, Schenkel said. "They're not the "efficiency buyers,"" he said.

"I think that's what we have to lean into," he said. "I think there's a market there." It may grow less than ecommerce, but it probably grows in-line or better than retail - for eBay, it's a great business, he said.

When asked about growth, Schenkel said, "Regardless of who's running the company, it's about what categories or verticals make sense for us."

He referenced eBay's experiment with different revenue models and participating less as a horizontal marketplace - "which we're good at," he noted parenthetically - "but how can we operate as a vertical marketplace?"

In eBay's sneaker category, there's now zero take rate over $100. While he said, "Free is not a strategy for us," he said the plan was to iterate on, "what do we see the behavior of those sellers?"

So far, he said, sellers are buying more promoted listing ads - "so we are getting a take rate." The number of listings is going up, and the buyer base is starting to get more interested "because now the inventory is here." And eBay is working on the product behind the scenes to make it more engaging. 

Schenkel said this year eBay will be expanding a number of categories and experimenting with different revenue models, with different seller engagements, different capabilities for sellers within those categories, and different visualization for buyers.

When asked where eBay was seeing incremental competition, Schenkel said ecommerce is seeing a lot more funding into vertical niche players. The hardest part for those startups is becoming profitable given the marketing spend required to scale. eBay already has that, he said.

"But they are bringing an engaged user base to an ecosystem that we haven't in recent years. They're bringing in a user experience that's more fresh, that's differentiated, that's mobile only, etc.

"You can expect us to lean into that side of the equation more," he said.

"They are helping to expand the market, and we've got to compete to win in these categories, and think about ourselves a little bit less from a user experience standpoint as a horizontal."

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Perminate Link for eBay CEO Takes a Vertical Approach to Compete with Rivals   eBay CEO Takes a Vertical Approach to Compete with Rivals

by: Silver Ice King This user has validated their user name.

Fri Feb 14 19:08:02 2020

I can't wait to see how much more revenue Ebay loses when they no longer process sales of bullion, coins and paper money.  Two of their larger sellers are or were sellers of just those products who were constantly in pictures with Ebay Management and now they are just going to kick them to the curb.  I guess I will no longer have anything left to buy on Ebay as I will just go direct to their web pages and buy my  bullion there where I can cut out Ebays FVF and get my investments even cheaper.

I cannot believe that Adyen will not process Bullion, coins or paper money.  I wonder if this is because they are not a licensed US bank, or if the processing rates are higher for those items and Ebay does not want to eat some of the additional Processing Fees in their quest to squeeze every penny from each Sellers pockets.  

Perminate Link for eBay CEO Takes a Vertical Approach to Compete with Rivals   eBay CEO Takes a Vertical Approach to Compete with Rivals

by: Ebay Little Shop of Horrors This user has validated their user name.

Fri Feb 14 19:29:18 2020

Who figured out that the ebay buyer is a "value seeker"? Just how/when did they have this epiphany?

Perminate Link for eBay CEO Takes a Vertical Approach to Compete with Rivals   eBay CEO Takes a Vertical Approach to Compete with Rivals

by: Ebay Little Shop of Horrors This user has validated their user name.

Fri Feb 14 19:43:29 2020

To be fair, most board members have never looked for value, just tax angles. They see their neighbor has a Ferrari, so they want one, too.

Every speech sounds like something scribbled out on a napkin on the way to the office. I don't think their heads are in the game. I think each individual is focused on what theyll walk away with.

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by: nsc This user has validated their user name.

Sat Feb 15 02:43:17 2020

Did you hear the latest? eBay intends to use the $3B they netted from the sale of StubHub for stock buybacks. They could found another company for that money!

This is what happens when you hired bad executives and incentivize them entirely with the stock price. They will do anything to prop up the stock price, the actual company be damned.

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by: Whatever This user has validated their user name.

Sat Feb 15 11:31:56 2020

I'm downgrading my premium store to basic - I've been premium for 20 years, My sales have reached historic lows. The one I save I'll toss at promoted listings because that is the only way now that your going to show up in search. I know my good sellers so I guess I'll promote those.

Someone said ebay doesn't fee us to death - I differ - so you have your store subscription - some of my items are suggested to promote at 17%! so if by some miracle they sell your fvf is now 27% plus the shipping fee plus the tax processing fee - plus Paypal PLUS your free shipping charges - forget it - it's gone way beyond ridiculous.  

So happy I started a website.- here's something I learned along the way - if your gonna have your own website - get out of all the other places you fled too. When a buyer searches for a product and finds it on etsy - Bonanza (big offender) ruby lane ect - what you are doing is simply promoting that site not your own.  I've eliminated all my listings on any site besides my own venue.  Case in point - Bonanza - I have NOTHING there but in google search they use a picture of a product that I had there over a year ago and my seller ID as well.  When you click on the picture it simply takes you to their venue with notice "Opps we can's find that but here's something else"  Sound familiar?  Anyway just bear in mind that your product on any site is really just doing that site's advertising for free for them not you.

I might not be the sharpest pencil in the cup but eventually I do figure things out. I'm actually hoping against all odds that someone with a brain might instill some common sense to eBay but not holding my breath.

Perminate Link for eBay CEO Takes a Vertical Approach to Compete with Rivals   eBay CEO Takes a Vertical Approach to Compete with Rivals

This user has validated their user name. by: Number 6

Sat Feb 15 16:55:10 2020

nsc
'eBay intends to use the $3B they netted from the sale of StubHub for stock buybacks.'

Read this in full if of interest, it pretty much explains everything and how the next two years will likely be dreadful for most sellers on the site as all eBay intends to do is grab as much immediate cash from what sellers are left in order to buy back more shares - expect more fees and more sneaky grabs not less.  That's what things like GTC, managed payments and promoted listings are all about.  

If you're one of the lucky few eBay shareholders right now, especially those with stock options working there, you're in for a big payday when you sell your stock - if you're one of the little people, us 'Deplorables' as Hilary Clinton liked to call us, who couldn't even get in at the start when shares were affordable, it definately means eBay's not going to spend a penny on anything else, its going to be a one-way money route in their favour.  It really is time to move on.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4324431-ebay-stock-16-tota
l-yield-based-on-buybacks-and-dividends

EBAY
has cut its shares outstanding by one-third in the past three years:

...the company has drawn its net cash balance of $2.3 billion in Q3 2017 and increased borrowing so that now it has a net debt balance of $3.59 billion. Note this includes its long-term investments. In other words, adding up all its long-term stakes in other companies, plus marketable securities plus cash, less total debt outstanding, results in a net balance of $3.59 billion as of Q4 2019.

So you can see that the asset sale of $4.05 billion for StubHub on Feb 13, 2020, which resulted in net cash of $.1 billion effectively eliminates the net debt balance.

...how EBAY has paid for this.

EBAY Has Used Its Net Cash and Net Debt to Pay For the Share Reduction

As you can see in the second chart above, there is a deficit between the amount of FCF EBAY generates and its buybacks. In fact, if you look at the dividends and debt paid down, the net deficit has increased.

But, as EBAY made clear, they are going to use all those proceeds to buy back $4.5 billion of shares in 2020.

Now we can take the third step. Dividing $33.4 billion, by the new 25% fewer number of shares outstanding in two years (596.8 million) results in a stock price of $56.00 per share. That is 50.6% higher than today's price.

So this is a simple model which shows why management is so aggressive in buying back its shares. It expects to return significant value to shareholders in a very short period of time by doing this.

Summary and Conclusion

eBay is aggressively buying back its shares. It is doing $4.5 billion a year. Based on its $29.6 billion market value that represents over 15% in buyback yield. Adding in the 1.72% dividend yield results in a total yield of over 16%.

I have shown that the stock is worth $56.00 per share, based on this buyback model. That is a potential expected gain of over 50% for EBAY stock.

Perminate Link for eBay CEO Takes a Vertical Approach to Compete with Rivals   eBay CEO Takes a Vertical Approach to Compete with Rivals

by: I Must be Crazy This user has validated their user name.

Sun Feb 16 12:56:32 2020

@Number 6

That is all true, but theoretical...Ebay stock 3 years ago was $33.76. Friday it closed at $38.14. That's barely a 15% increase over 36 months. I think the S&P last year was up over 20%.

So share buybacks are a waste of money as the stock is in effect decreasing in value.

Those idiots have been flushing money down the toilet. And they are continuing this year by blowing the entire $3.1 billion of net proceeds from the sale of Stubhub.

They could rebuild the entire platform for that amount of money. I see this article as affirmation that the strategy eBay executives have had in place for 10 years has failed. I guess they finally recognize Amazon is so far ahead, eBay can't even see the dust. They now want to do an about face, and find smaller rivals to try to beat. Get back to their roots? Sellers have been telling those arrogant jerks the same thing for years. But since it was all dismissed as noise, alternatives came up, sellers left, and have little to no reason to go back.

It's a great way to kill a business really. Extract all of the value, take the cash and saddle it with debt.

Perminate Link for eBay CEO Takes a Vertical Approach to Compete with Rivals   eBay CEO Takes a Vertical Approach to Compete with Rivals

by: nsc This user has validated their user name.

Sun Feb 16 19:11:17 2020

Also the high debt ratio combined with shareholder payouts makes eBay less attractive as hostile takeover target, which it would otherwise be. The shareholders will sit quiet as long as they are being paid. When the money runs out, the stock price will fall, the executives will jump ship, and the shareholders will demand a sale.

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