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Mon July 19 2010 18:29:45

Six Signs to Watch for During eBay's Q2 Earnings Report

By: David Steiner

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Another quarter is behind eBay, and earnings week is upon us. If nothing else, the next few days is certain to be filled with earnings previews, predictions from pundits, cheat sheets, analyst reports, and post-mortems. We at AuctionBytes ran the numbers, scoured the metrics, and have come to the conclusion that applying "TV Series Analytics" (TVSA) is as good a method as any for measuring the health of eBay.
 
For those unfamiliar, TVSA points to signs that may indicate a television show is beginning to show age or wear. While Wall Street analysts may look at metrics such as GMV, same store sales, unique visitors, conversion rates and currency fluctuations to predict eBay's Q2 performance, here are six TVSA indicators to look for in determining future guidance on eBay:

Sign #1:

The "Fonz" attempts to jump the $3 billion dollars that eBay has sitting in the Cayman Islands.


Sign #2:

The gang flies to Hawaii to visit Pierre's "safe" house, and hi-jinx ensue after they encounter a cursed Tiki idol.

Sign #3:

Ted McGinley is hired at eBay to ANY position.

Sign #4:

Darren #2 is replaced by Darren #3, who happens to be 6'4", has a penchant for Hawaiian shirts, and loves showing off his iPhone.

Sign #5:

Bob Swan's replacement during the Q2 analyst's call is a new CFO named, "The Great Gazoo."

Sign #6:

eBay reveals that the last 2-1/2 years was just a dream.




Comments (34) | Permalink

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Six Signs to Watch for During eBay's Q2 Earnings Report   Six Signs to Watch for During eBay's Q2 Earnings Report

by: Shark Jumper

Mon Jul 19 18:37:30 2010

Probably as valid a method as any that the analysts come up with. Thanks for the laugh!

Six Signs to Watch for During eBay's Q2 Earnings Report   Six Signs to Watch for During eBay's Q2 Earnings Report

by: Pat

Mon Jul 19 18:39:09 2010

Ina - get David away from the TV set! LOL!!

Six Signs to Watch for During eBay's Q2 Earnings Report   Six Signs to Watch for During eBay's Q2 Earnings Report

by: Classic!

Mon Jul 19 18:43:24 2010

That pic with JD and Gazoo is priceless! Made my day!!

Six Signs to Watch for During eBay's Q2 Earnings Report   Six Signs to Watch for During eBay's Q2 Earnings Report

by: Patricia This user has validated their user name.

Mon Jul 19 18:57:32 2010

This whole article made my day...especially the last one but I'm afraid that would be a nightmare and not just a dream.

Unfortunately, its going to be difficult to see just what Ebay did during the last quarter.  Devilish Donahoe deliberately dumped all stores in core on April 1.  I believe he did that to camoflage the quarter so that nobody will know if Ebay's core gained or declined!  There will be nothing to compare this quarter to - thus giving Donahoe another quarter or two to show that core is still declining.  I'm afraid this is the kind of slippery management running Ebay today.  Notice that he no longer speaks about sales - but about the amount of listings....two entirely different things!

Six Signs to Watch for During eBay's Q2 Earnings Report   Six Signs to Watch for During eBay's Q2 Earnings Report

by: Ebay seller

Mon Jul 19 20:03:52 2010

Thanks Ina for the laugh! lol

Six Signs to Watch for During eBay's Q2 Earnings Report   Six Signs to Watch for During eBay's Q2 Earnings Report

by: Horatio Caine

Mon Jul 19 20:20:19 2010

You forgot the spinoffs. eBay:Miami and eBay:NY

Six Signs to Watch for During eBay's Q2 Earnings Report   Six Signs to Watch for During eBay's Q2 Earnings Report

by: My Own Website Not Quite Paying My Bills Yet

Mon Jul 19 20:36:40 2010


Pretty funny stuff.

I hope people are not waiting for Ebay to collapse anytime soon. Ebay as a corporation is strong financially. They have many properties and no debt. While their Ebay marketplace business is struggling, all it really means is that they could have made way more money if they ran that part of the business better. Even though Amazon is eating their lunch, their marketplace will not be going out of business.

But while EBay has 'jumped the shark', there isn't a better time for people to operate their business in a new business model.

Six Signs to Watch for During eBay's Q2 Earnings Report   Six Signs to Watch for During eBay's Q2 Earnings Report

by: RicRoe

Mon Jul 19 20:41:40 2010

Anyone listening or reading Donahoe's comments when he delivers the 2010 Q2 report would be wise to think of that FOX show - "Lie To Me".

Six Signs to Watch for During eBay's Q2 Earnings Report   Six Signs to Watch for During eBay's Q2 Earnings Report

This user has validated their user name. by: Philip Cohen

Mon Jul 19 20:48:32 2010

The many problematic issues of eBay are hardly worth discussing any more. Clearly, the headless turkeys have taken over the farmyard and since the sociopath John Donahoe—whose arrogance is only outweighed by his incompetence—has been given access to the executive wash room, every quarter, eBay is being flushed further and further down the toilet.

Their new US data center has, since the April Fools Day IT Massacre, been effectively non functional, or if it is functioning as planned, it’s a very strange plan. The fact is the whale is high and dry on the beach, has died, and is now stinking.

Still, the evening of the 21st surely is going to be another most entertaining night for eBay watchers. We are all waiting to hear who Donahoe will blame this time for what, in reality, is eBay’s ongoing dismal performance compared to online commerce in general and Amazon in particular. I am looking forward a very unprofessional presentation (including lots of chimp-like hand waving) of a whole load of deceptive eBay spin.

In the meantime, for anyone seriously interested in the utter incompetence and deviousness of eBay’s executive management generally, and in particular eBay’s deliberate and demonstrable criminal facilitation of the rampant shill bidding fraud being perpetrated on unsuspecting buyers, by a great many unscrupulous professional sellers, on nominal-start auctions, an introduction thereto (along with some Pay-Pal horror stories thrown in for good measure) can be found at
http://www.auctionbytes.com/forum/phpBB/viewtopic.php?p=6502877>
eBay/Pay-Pal/Donahoe:
Dead Men Walking

Six Signs to Watch for During eBay's Q2 Earnings Report   Six Signs to Watch for During eBay's Q2 Earnings Report

by: buck efay

Mon Jul 19 20:59:27 2010

I'm sure we the sellers will be blamed. After all, we are all horrible criminals. Maybe they can find another way to screw the lid tighter on all the crummy sellers that are ruining ebay, Like BUY & Shoplet, LOL.

And Horatio, those were SUCCESSFUL spinoffs. An Ebay spinoff would be something more like Joanie Loves Chachi, or 704 Houser, failures that couldn't capture even 10% of the audiences of their highly rated forebearers. The current state of Ebay could also be compared to the season Roseanne jumped the shark & won all the money, acting like a rich richie & throwing around her weight as a star, but losing her entire fan base. More I think about it, that's just what happened to Ebay.

Six Signs to Watch for During eBay's Q2 Earnings Report   Six Signs to Watch for During eBay's Q2 Earnings Report

by: Rick8

Mon Jul 19 21:05:35 2010

More interesting will be how Wall Street will react when it finds out that eBay.com (and eBay.ca) is operating with an USER AGREEMENT (UA) that they have nullified with recent (and upcoming) policy changes.

The LIMITATION AND LIABILITY section states that they are just a selling venue and they do not take part in the transaction.

1 -- The ACCEPTED PAYMENTS POLICY (who can say they accept paper payments in their listing)...

2 -- Enforced maximum S&H in some categories (Books category as an example)...

3 -- DSR's (they state that they are only buyers' opininions but then treat them as statistical facts when accessing a seller's performance)...

4 -- The BUYER PROTECTION POLICY (biggest one of all as they are actually refunding the transaction payment if claim is found in buyer's favor)...

5 -- Saying in listing that seller is responsible for all listing content (when it is eBay that is, and will be, generating some of the details to buyer and seller cannot modify it to their terms of sale)...

6 -- Even PayPal has caught the nullified UA bug in their recently created lose/lose situation for seller, by saying that seller protection is lost if buyer redirects the shipment.

If seller has package returned, seller will then lose INR case.

And who pays to have package re-shipped?

Emailed PayPal on this and they have refused to respond.

and on, and on.........but I'll keep it to six like Ina.

Lawsuits will follow once affected sellers realize eBay's grave error in not revising the Limitation & Liability section in accordance with their determination to control a seller's listing.

Six Signs to Watch for During eBay's Q2 Earnings Report   Six Signs to Watch for During eBay's Q2 Earnings Report

by: Rick9

Mon Jul 19 21:13:35 2010

And I forgot to mention, in Rick8 post above, that I now refer to the UA as site literature, as that it all it is now.

Six Signs to Watch for During eBay's Q2 Earnings Report   Six Signs to Watch for During eBay's Q2 Earnings Report

by: kw

Mon Jul 19 22:03:41 2010

LOL!!!

The pics nailed it.  Simple and so much easier on the eyes than reading analyist reports.

Six Signs to Watch for During eBay's Q2 Earnings Report   Six Signs to Watch for During eBay's Q2 Earnings Report

by: Red Ink Diary This user has validated their user name.
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Mon Jul 19 22:20:30 2010

Too funny.

Those of us who have disengaged from eBay will find plenty to amuse ourselves about on Wednesday.

Six Signs to Watch for During eBay's Q2 Earnings Report   Six Signs to Watch for During eBay's Q2 Earnings Report

by: GazLanNaThai This user has validated their user name.
Web Site

Mon Jul 19 22:51:24 2010

@ Patricia

There IS a previous quarter (or two) with which to compare Q2-10 with stores in core - remember 2006?

Of course Q1-Q2 2006 was pre-Donahoe and the tail end of the eBay dominance of online etailing in 3rd-party marketplaces - it was all downhill from that point onwards, but even if the US only had stores in core for 6 weeks, and the UK for 6 months, there is still a corollary for comparison, particularly -

Total GMV against total listings quantity

Total GMV against total listings start value

Number of active sellers

Number of active buyers

Number of active Stores subscriptions

Average invoice value

etc

Those can all be compared on a 2006 v 2010 basis Q1 to Q1, Q2 to Q2 or first half year to first half year.  Of course there's also the key traffic stats that any web master and search engine knows are highly relevant -

Total unique visits and total page views leading to average page views per visit (it's called "visitor engagement" and "site relevance" - both highly weighted in search engine results.

Then there's user activity on site in terms of comments, questions etc - in 2006, eBay had not just the forums (now culled to near non-sustainability), but also user blogs (gone), the review pages and reports (forgot their name) now mostly gone, and so forth.  Not to mention the automatic halving of user feedback activity by making it one sided, plus the general decline from 70%+ of buyers leaving feedback down to around 20% (even Griff has admitted that).

Google's "Caffeine" search algorithms for ranking results, returned for any search, now include on-site user activity and content creation by visitors (feedback, ratings, comments, forums etc etc etc) - eBay has systematically wiped out as much user interaction with the site as possible, which means that "Caffeine" rolling out at the end of last month is going to dump anything from eBay way way down in results.  Not just on the big G, but also on Yahoo, AOL, Bing, and pretty much everywhere else too.

One wonders if big-G did this as part of their ongoing niggles with eBay, though I doubt it, it may have been contributory - having seen an emerging weakness in eBay policies and actions, which make the Bay vulnerable to such changes by big search engines.

This week - watch for spin to say adCommerce is going to be revamped to replace falling core revenues, and watch for a deal between the Bay and big-G emerging sometime this year (or the Bay and Bing) designed solely to raise the Bay's profile in search results - if they don't, they'll drown under big-G's Caffeine lake.

Six Signs to Watch for During eBay's Q2 Earnings Report   Six Signs to Watch for During eBay's Q2 Earnings Report

by: kazoo

Mon Jul 19 23:19:26 2010

Everything is going to alright........I had no idea Donahoe and The Great Gazoo hooked up!

Six Signs to Watch for During eBay's Q2 Earnings Report   Six Signs to Watch for During eBay's Q2 Earnings Report

This user has validated their user name. by: Tula

Mon Jul 19 23:38:31 2010

ROFL! Thanks for the great laugh. You're pretty good with Photoshop :-)

I wonder how the recent free auction listing sale will affect the numbers. I took advantage of it, to see what would happen, and actually had about 30% sell-through. I hadn't listed for on eBay for over a year, but this is a definite improvement over what I saw last time I listed anything. It's a far cry from what I used to see, but was unexpectedly (even shockingly!) good, especially during these slow summer months.

I use other venues, but so far, they just don't bring in the traffic. Bonanzle has been pointless, since their Google feed doesn't seem to work, so I get little traffic and no sales there. If they want to improve the numbers, they need to revamp that bit. They'd have good potential if the service worked properly. I've had better luck at other venues like eCrater, etsy, and AtomicMall, but still not as much as I get on eBay. Like it or not, people still shop there.

Six Signs to Watch for During eBay's Q2 Earnings Report   Six Signs to Watch for During eBay's Q2 Earnings Report

by: buck efay

Tue Jul 20 00:09:42 2010

Tula, Ebay managed 11% sell thru on my last 100 free. But the best part, I have offers on about $1000 of items I had listed there from people who told me they will buy from me direct for cash or Money order, but not thru ebay & not with Paypal, LOL! The word is spreading, John Donahoe, LOL!!! Buyers feel safer sending some random seller money orders rather then trusting Paybay!

Six Signs to Watch for During eBay's Q2 Earnings Report   Six Signs to Watch for During eBay's Q2 Earnings Report

by: buck efay

Tue Jul 20 00:12:43 2010

Also, the numbers from this sale will only show up in Q3 anyway.

Six Signs to Watch for During eBay's Q2 Earnings Report   Six Signs to Watch for During eBay's Q2 Earnings Report

This user has validated their user name. by: Philip Cohen

Tue Jul 20 00:14:16 2010

http://www.auctionbytes.com/cab/abn/y10/m07/i20/s02

‘Spokespe
rson
Johnna Hoff supplied the following statement via email: “We do not support activity that goes against our stated policies, which are in place to help maintain a safe buying and selling environment on eBay.”’

eBay says that they don’t support shill bidding either, but they do nothing proactive about it and very little reactive about it. eBay’s “stated policies” are all nominal only except where they have any affect directly on eBay. This statement is simply one more dose of disingenuous spin from the masters thereof, the eBay Dept of Spin.

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