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Thu July 8 2010 18:56:12

Amazon Kicks eBay's Butt in Q2, Craigslist Tie for Traffic

By: Ina Steiner

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Mark Mahaney of Citi Group expects Amazon traffic to grow 21% year over year in Q2, while it expects eBay's traffic to drop 2% year over year. Mahaney likes Amazon's management strength, competitive moats, significant long-term growth opportunity, and its inherently attractive business model.

He wrote, "The headline here is that Amazon continues to offer industry-leading selection, with pricing that is close to parity with that offered on eBay, Wal-Mart.com, and Buy.com."



Remarkably, not only is eBay's traffic now below Amazon.com's, it will soon be surpassed by traffic on Craigslist, as shown in the chart above.



Mahaney expect eBay revenue growth deceleration in Q2, with key factors being materially tougher comps, FX headwinds (currency), and arguably some transition/execution issues in the U.S. with the new pricing policies and Search algorithms, along with modest bottom line leverage.

He anticipates Amazon's Q1 results will show organic revenue growth at 36% Y/Y, excluding FX and the Zappos acquisition.

The GMV growth rate chart shows that while Amazon's lead over ecommerce narrows, it keeps a steady lead over eBay, which can't keep up with U.S. ecommerce growth.

eBay Board of Directors have been extremely patient with John Donahoe's performance. He's been a master of managing expectations, giving himself 3 years (a long time in ecommerce!) to turn the eBay marketplace around. And with the SR2 changes to which Mahaney referred (new pricing and search algorithms, aka Stores in Core), John gave himself "a few quarters" before anyone should expect to see positive results.

eBay's Board may be numbingly patient, but sellers don't have the luxury of waiting a few quarters - or years - for things to turn around.

You can see the full Citi Group report here. eBay releases second-quarter earnings on July 21st; Amazon usually releases figures the day after eBay.




Comments (65) | Permalink

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Amazon Kicks eBay's Butt in Q2, Craigslist Tie for Traffic   Amazon Kicks eBay's Butt in Q2, Craigslist Tie for Traffic

by: My Own Website Not Quite Paying My Bills Yet

Thu Jul 8 19:12:46 2010


Expect the trend to continue and the gap to get wider.

Amazon Kicks eBay's Butt in Q2, Craigslist Tie for Traffic   Amazon Kicks eBay's Butt in Q2, Craigslist Tie for Traffic

by: Patricia This user has validated their user name.

Thu Jul 8 19:31:53 2010

I don't see a problem here.  John Donahoe laughes and says he's on the right track...what more is there to say ;-)

Anyway, I have my camera all ready for that great picture of old JD on the unemployment line. LOL

Amazon Kicks eBay's Butt in Q2, Craigslist Tie for Traffic   Amazon Kicks eBay's Butt in Q2, Craigslist Tie for Traffic

by: Patricia This user has validated their user name.

Thu Jul 8 19:33:08 2010

....but of course he'll blame it all on the really bad bad bad sellers (even though they can't sell much without traffic!)

Amazon Kicks eBay's Butt in Q2, Craigslist Tie for Traffic   Amazon Kicks eBay's Butt in Q2, Craigslist Tie for Traffic

by: JoeS

Thu Jul 8 19:38:19 2010

I love Craigslist and have used it quite a bit to buy but occasionally use it to sell. Their site follows the K.I.S.S. principle very well. I once had that kind of enthusiasm for eBay but that is long gone with the stupid changes and constant fees. Sounds like eBay management is driving more and more users away as they make those insane changes. Many of us on these type of forums tried to tell them they were making huge mistakes but they would not even listen and fell on deaf ears. Now, I've moved on and just sit back and watch their implosion. Donahoe needs to be let go ASAP for ruining such a good thing that eBay once had.

Amazon Kicks eBay's Butt in Q2, Craigslist Tie for Traffic   Amazon Kicks eBay's Butt in Q2, Craigslist Tie for Traffic

This user has validated their user name. by: Mercy the Mingless

Thu Jul 8 20:13:25 2010

In May 22, 2008, John Donahoe was interviewd by Scot Wingo of ChannelAdvisor.

Wingo - Q: ''What are you doing to accelerate eBay?''

Donahoe - A: ''We are driving more changes than ever. There are no silver bullets, we’re testing in different geos, when we find things that work, we’ll do more of them and less of the ones that don’t.''

Donahoe is delusional.  There is no other explanation.

Amazon Kicks eBay's Butt in Q2, Craigslist Tie for Traffic   Amazon Kicks eBay's Butt in Q2, Craigslist Tie for Traffic

by: 10 YEAR SELLER

Thu Jul 8 20:35:36 2010

Ebay has already accepted and is fully aware that the old eBay is finished. That was their goal.
They Hired JD to create a new company without creating a new name or different web address.

They simply dropped another business onto the old one and are systematically  eliminating the old model piece by peice by hiding the old model from appearing the search engine.

Sometimes you're able to slip through  and join the party but soon you won't invited anymore unless you pay a very high cover fee. When that happens the blackout will be permanent.They did it this way to retain the buyers

Gamblers continue to gamble even if they are losing as long as there is a small payoff from time to time and the hope of one in the future.

Amazon Kicks eBay's Butt in Q2, Craigslist Tie for Traffic   Amazon Kicks eBay's Butt in Q2, Craigslist Tie for Traffic

by: Jeff

Thu Jul 8 20:42:05 2010

Gee, what a surprise.

I have stuff listed on auction right now. Things I've sold for the past 10 years. Things that in 7 days would garner at least 100 looks. They've been running 4 days so far and have 0 to 1 looks.

Amazon Kicks eBay's Butt in Q2, Craigslist Tie for Traffic   Amazon Kicks eBay's Butt in Q2, Craigslist Tie for Traffic

by: Idiotic

Thu Jul 8 21:25:12 2010

It is very clear that eBay have a massive problem, they still generate billions BUT they are no longer the household name of even 5 years ago.

It must be time for an investigation into eBay Inc business practices; due to the fact of sellers being hidden in search for exposure they pay for..just like paying a car dealer to sell your car and he stores it in a lockup down town
eBay have literally been ripping off their customers (that’s you Mr Seller) for years, hiding behind Government lobbyists …anyone voting for Whitman must be plain Dumb / stupid or both

Amazon Kicks eBay's Butt in Q2, Craigslist Tie for Traffic   Amazon Kicks eBay's Butt in Q2, Craigslist Tie for Traffic

by: VintageArt

Thu Jul 8 21:49:59 2010

I thought Dohahoe said that eBay would be growing at the same rate as ecommerce by now. Clearly they're not. The gap between eBay and Amazon has also stayed consistently wide. What I would find most disturbing, if I were an eBay board member, is how much distance Craigslist has made up over the past three years. I know I list MUCH more on CL now...3 years ago, I never used the site.

Amazon Kicks eBay's Butt in Q2, Craigslist Tie for Traffic   Amazon Kicks eBay's Butt in Q2, Craigslist Tie for Traffic

by: Jessy S.

Thu Jul 8 22:18:28 2010

10 Year Seller is right.

JD is like a gambler down to his last few dollars.  At this point JD might want to consider going to a children's casino.  The only problem is that he will likely lose, just like Clark Griswald in Vegas Vacation.

Amazon Kicks eBay's Butt in Q2, Craigslist Tie for Traffic   Amazon Kicks eBay's Butt in Q2, Craigslist Tie for Traffic

by: fallonthalia
Web Site

Thu Jul 8 23:53:02 2010

Here are some of the highlights about eBay in the Citi Group report that Ina has a link to at the bottom of this article:

"We maintain our hold rating . . . we continue to view eBay as containing a very robust Payments business and a competitively and structurally challenged Marketplace business. . . . Given that eBay's Marketplace accounts for over 80% overall profits, it has to grow its Marketplace segment in-line with overall eCommerce . . . We believe that's a tall order given . . . We believe that buyers will continue to migrate away from eBay--taking sellers along with them . . . Q2 data is that eBay's relative traffic continues to underperform other ecommerce websites . . . eBay's long-term U.S. Web traffic trends have been in steady and significant decline for a substantial period of time . . . "

I just posted this on that thread "5 days straight" on the eBay forums.  I wonder how long it will be before they remove it.

Amazon Kicks eBay's Butt in Q2, Craigslist Tie for Traffic   Amazon Kicks eBay's Butt in Q2, Craigslist Tie for Traffic

by: Joyful

Thu Jul 8 23:59:01 2010

I follow Craigslist "wanted" list and have made a couple of good-sized sales that way.

Amazon Kicks eBay's Butt in Q2, Craigslist Tie for Traffic   Amazon Kicks eBay's Butt in Q2, Craigslist Tie for Traffic

by: Smitty This user has validated their user name.

Fri Jul 9 00:11:15 2010

But JD told me we were almost there. Has something gone wrong?

That old eBay was not working, the one where many of us had a 75% sell through rate. I'm talking about the eBay where anyone could find anything they could think of.

Who cared that people said you could find anything on eBay. JD didn't care and he has an MBA plus he was a Bain consultant.

I'm hoping Wall Street gives him a little more time to complete his vison. I'm sure we can become the Montgomery Ward of the 21st Century.

Smitty

Amazon Kicks eBay's Butt in Q2, Craigslist Tie for Traffic   Amazon Kicks eBay's Butt in Q2, Craigslist Tie for Traffic

by: times up

Fri Jul 9 00:29:53 2010

OK JD, you've scr*wed us long enough.

It's time for you to bow out gracefully.
Its time for a complete restructuring at ebay, its time to return to the core values it was built on.

Time is up ebay, its now or never.

Amazon Kicks eBay's Butt in Q2, Craigslist Tie for Traffic   Amazon Kicks eBay's Butt in Q2, Craigslist Tie for Traffic

by: yep

Fri Jul 9 01:07:04 2010

Until Donohole is released and EVERYTHING changed back to the way it was the decline will continue.

It's going to take years after he's finally gone if it ever does return to any form of success.

It was expected by me anyway. The first time I heard Donohole speak I knew ebay was in DEEP trouble. The guy is a clown, he should be locked up for whatever it is he is doing.

I think he secretly works for Amazon.

Amazon Kicks eBay's Butt in Q2, Craigslist Tie for Traffic   Amazon Kicks eBay's Butt in Q2, Craigslist Tie for Traffic

by: mo

Fri Jul 9 01:16:02 2010

The only arrow pointing up Donohole will ever see is the arrow to the exit doors at ebay headquarters on the day he finally leaves.

Unless he looks at the sellers leaving charts.

With Donohole all productivity is stalled and thwarted, WHY? I don't know whay he continues to introduce detrimental changes to the site. Only a complete moron would do such things.

UNLESS HE IS WORKING FOR THE COMPETITION!

I would run to the exits if you happen to work wherever he ends up. A dark cloud follows him.

Amazon Kicks eBay's Butt in Q2, Craigslist Tie for Traffic   Amazon Kicks eBay's Butt in Q2, Craigslist Tie for Traffic

by: JoeS

Fri Jul 9 03:24:34 2010

Interesting take on the Donahoe's gamble to completely turn eBay into something else. If so, this was doomed to fail from the beginning.

First off, people are way smarter than management treated them with management's child-like policies.

The main reason something like this would fail is something that has been repeated time and again on blogs and forums is sellers are also buyers. It's basic business customer relations. If all this has been to rid the place of the small sellers while trying to try to keep the buyers it is a not well thought out strategy.

Does management realize just how easy it was to do both? That it was a system where buyers can easily become sellers, sell some stuff, and use that money to become buyers again? It's a marketplace that supports itself and if you run off a seller, there's a good chance you run off a buyer? And the way this management has terrorized and run off their sellers, that seller/buyer will also take their family and friends with them. It's not hard to figure out how insane eBay management has been and these traffic trends speak volumes to their incompetence.

Amazon Kicks eBay's Butt in Q2, Craigslist Tie for Traffic   Amazon Kicks eBay's Butt in Q2, Craigslist Tie for Traffic

by: Lisa
Web Site

Fri Jul 9 04:27:02 2010

absolutely joe5,

JD made it very clear, he doesnt like niche sellers, he called users flea marketers and referred to them as noise.
how insulting, and it was double the insult to those of us who bought more than we sold or sold things just so we could buy. I loved ebay and all its noisy junktique. I absolutely embraced having such wonderful crappola by the hundreds to bid on until my eyeballs fell out and rolled away. Its ashame JD felt a need to change that. as a consumer i find very few things on ebay that are worth my money and time anymore. Seems like sellers quit selling anything but drop shipped teal toasters. Its really sad.

~L

Amazon Kicks eBay's Butt in Q2, Craigslist Tie for Traffic   Amazon Kicks eBay's Butt in Q2, Craigslist Tie for Traffic

by: Imagine That

Fri Jul 9 05:10:40 2010

JD needs to leave the sellers alone and let the sellers run their own business. He is only about making profit, controlling the market place, and degrading sellers so he can take away their discounts. I get more responses off of one ad on Craigslist, than all my listings on eBay combined.      

Amazon Kicks eBay's Butt in Q2, Craigslist Tie for Traffic   Amazon Kicks eBay's Butt in Q2, Craigslist Tie for Traffic

by: EX_EBEYER

Fri Jul 9 06:25:00 2010

EBAY IS DEAD.
REST IN PIECE EBAY, WIPING TEARS :-(

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