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Sat Dec 20 2008 20:20:18

What's Ahead for eBay, Ecommerce in 2009

By: Ina Steiner

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The editorial in Sunday's AuctionBytes-Update newsletter contains some predictions for what's ahead for eBay and ecommerce in 2009 - we'd like to hear your thoughts. Here are some of the things we see ahead.

Increased taxes and regulation on ecommerce adversely affecting small sellers.

More third-party advertising on eBay.

The continuation of category-based pricing on eBay, and a new checkout system. Possibly getting rid of the old feedback system of negative, positive and neutral ratings, leaving Detailed Seller Ratings (DSRs).

Growing success of Google as a shopping platform.

Mutual disenchantment between Amazon.com and its small third-party sellers.

Continued growth of eBay alternatives.

Consolidation of large marketplaces, third-party vendors.




Comments (128) | Permalink

Readers Comments

What's Ahead for eBay, Ecommerce in 2009   What's Ahead for eBay, Ecommerce in 2009

by: Steve

Sat Dec 20 20:35:18 2008

"Continued growth of eBay alternatives."

If only one of them would catch on in a big way.  I am so sick of paying eBay fees.  Sales have been pathetic since Best Match was implemented and we even have a "raised" rating.
 I'm just praying for something better to come along so eBay, the Hoe, Scot Wingo, paid advertising and the Buy.com's of the world can rot.

What's Ahead for eBay, Ecommerce in 2009   What's Ahead for eBay, Ecommerce in 2009

by: Daisy

Sat Dec 20 21:07:28 2008

Ditto above. Ebay's insanity is going to drive us all out. I hope one of the alternatives turns out to be a big winner! I hope Ebay fails miserably.

What's Ahead for eBay, Ecommerce in 2009   What's Ahead for eBay, Ecommerce in 2009

by: peep

Sat Dec 20 21:10:32 2008

I have the name of a good head doctor for anyone that continues to sell on Ebay.

What's Ahead for eBay, Ecommerce in 2009   What's Ahead for eBay, Ecommerce in 2009

by: On Lies and Secrets

Sat Dec 20 21:24:44 2008

In my opinion, google was the real threat to ebay and I suspect that google has already ''won'' (whatever that means) the ecommerce game in the US.  I think google's primacy will become even more evident next year.

What's Ahead for eBay, Ecommerce in 2009   What's Ahead for eBay, Ecommerce in 2009

by: Patricia

Sat Dec 20 22:23:48 2008

I see a miserable first quarter next year for Ebay.  A drastic nosedive as people get over the christmas season of giving and start tightening their belts.  I feel this is when the smaller sites begin to take off because people will want the cheap prices they will not be able to find on ebay.  Ebay's diamond sellers will, more and more, hang on only to get Ebay's traffic over to their OWN sites.  Ebay gives them free listing - what they sell, they sell and in the meantime they get to put their long greedy fingers into Ebay's traffic.  Loser in the end:  Ebay!

By end of second quarter Ebay may make a desperate attempt to get back it flea market atmosphere as they will become painfully aware their traffic is going elsewhere to buy these rare, unique and vintage items.  Those large stores who do not go out of business next year, Walmart, sears, Kmart, Target, etc. will put on such stunning sales in order to keep their heads above water that nobody will be buying from either Ebay OR Amazon.

Those are my predictions for next year.  Frankly, it saddens to see Ebay taken down and I bet there are a lot of other small sellers who feel that way too...BUT they must scrape the bottom before they come to their senses.  I expect to see the present management team gone long before the end of next year...especially since Whitman wants to try a run for governor of California...she will try to disassociate herself from the Ebay turmoil.  Meg...there are an awful lot of ANGRY ebay sellers in California and they have very good memories - they remember only too well that you groomed Donahoe for this mess he's made....save your money!

What's Ahead for eBay, Ecommerce in 2009   What's Ahead for eBay, Ecommerce in 2009

by: KR1765

Sat Dec 20 22:49:50 2008

Ina always writes against eBay. I would not buy too much into her predictions. Only time will tell and I am confident that eBay will do well in 2009. The sweeping changes they are implementing are good for both buyers as well as sellers. It always takes a time for any change to become effective as human nature resists change. Better days are ahead for eBay. Go eBay!

What's Ahead for eBay, Ecommerce in 2009   What's Ahead for eBay, Ecommerce in 2009

by: MBA West Coast

Sat Dec 20 23:50:47 2008

@KR1765

Please give examples of imperical data supporting your assertions about ebay.

Provide verifiable monetary and statistical data showing how things are better for sellers.

Most important: show us how sellers, overall, are making more (not less) money attempting to sell on ebay.

Thank you.

What's Ahead for eBay, Ecommerce in 2009   What's Ahead for eBay, Ecommerce in 2009

by: Jim

Sun Dec 21 01:35:32 2008

PREDICTION: More and more SELLERS continue to leave eBay, but the BUYERS are still there. That means I'm staying.

Sure I'll use Amazon too and whatever else makes sense, but as long as eBay keeps bringing me traffic and leads I'll take advantage of the greatest lead source my business has got...eBay.

I'm ramping up my business on eBay. I have two people working for me now. 100% positive feedback and about 10 years on eBay and LOVING IT.

Notice I don't RELY on eBay. I USE eBay. There's a big difference. I've got a killer mailing list of customers that I can sell to anytime I want to. eBay has little to do with my future success if we ever part ways.

I'm predicting a resurgence on eBay in 2009 as soon as all the sellers that claim they are "going away" finally go away.

What's Ahead for eBay, Ecommerce in 2009   What's Ahead for eBay, Ecommerce in 2009

by: anti-jim

Sun Dec 21 06:24:57 2008

We predict the exact opposite of what "jim" states. Because thousands leave sleezebay everyday, other site such as Bonanzle, iOffer.com etc are growing faster than expected, the end is very near for eBay as you thought you knew it. Jim, stay at ebay, the other sites are better off without u.

What's Ahead for eBay, Ecommerce in 2009   What's Ahead for eBay, Ecommerce in 2009

by: ebaysucks

Sun Dec 21 06:57:58 2008

@KR1765 & Jim, What kinda morons are you guys anyways?  As sellers leave eBay, especially the small ones, eBay will be nothing more than a venue for large etailers selling mostly the same cheap crap one can get at Walmart or Target.  It was the small sellers that brought their unique items onto eBay which resulted in the traffic they once had in the first place. Plus back in the old days a ton of small sellers also were buyers as well and if they're all gone then so will their Paypal accounts full of money they use to buy stuff on eBay.  Barack Obama as President is the result of the "small" people finally standing up to the status quot and 2009 will bring much more of that! Many changes in 09'no doubt and obviously long overdue.

What's Ahead for eBay, Ecommerce in 2009   What's Ahead for eBay, Ecommerce in 2009

by: Jeff S

Sun Dec 21 07:14:07 2008

One thing this holiday shopping season has taught us is that consumers are using cash instead of credit.  Credit cards are maxed.  Paperless payments kicks into high gear in January (on ebay) which further drives cash payers away.

What's Ahead for eBay, Ecommerce in 2009   What's Ahead for eBay, Ecommerce in 2009

by: Nancy G

Sun Dec 21 08:21:17 2008

re: the weather and McGrath's idiotic remark:

Okay I guess I am an IDIOT.....  When your power goes off POOF--one second it's on and the next second it's off, how in the world would you ".... proactively communicate with your buyers."

Is Skip McGrath a MORON??

First of all it's very likely your PHONE doesn't even work. Secondly, even if it did, what's the chances you have or are able to obtain the buyers' phone number without accessing the internet??

And Thirdly, and more important, I would be worried about how to get HEAT in my house, not calling the buyers!!! It's 25 degrees right now where I live.  The buyer is just impatient, but I would freeze in my own home!!

Not having power is something eBay (since they decided they don't want to stick with just being a forum) should NOTIFY buyers about when they have sellers in certain areas.

For instance, they could have let buyers  of sellers in the zip code around Boston know that if their seller is not communicating with them, they may not have power, and to be more patient!!

Proactively communicate??

HOW?

This guy has a brain the size of a peanut.

I wonder when is the last time his power went off, they don't exactly give an hours notice!!



What's Ahead for eBay, Ecommerce in 2009   What's Ahead for eBay, Ecommerce in 2009

by: eBuyer Feedback

Sun Dec 21 08:35:08 2008

While I would look forward to eBay eliminating all feedback on eBay except DSRs (I have a system in place in case this happens), I think it would be a huge mistake on eBay's part just like the current one-sided system is.  Just like eBay *should* let us say whatever we need to regarding our buyers they should be able to do the same to us.  Seeing a 4.1 S&H DSR tells me very little about the seller but seeing several negatives saying took two weeks to ship says volumes.

What's Ahead for eBay, Ecommerce in 2009   What's Ahead for eBay, Ecommerce in 2009

by: Donna

Sun Dec 21 09:32:23 2008

It's not looking good for Ebay because they have forgotten the very people who helped build their business-sellers. I have taught countless people how to sell on Ebay and in past years have sold enough to be a power seller. The DSR system is the most ridiculous system and as a die hard Ebay supporter I have left the building. You cannot rate buyers, but they can rate you. If you call live support you are lucky to speak to anyone that will give you correct information. They just refer to canned scripts and tell you that you need to raise your DSR rating and you can sell again....however, you cannot sell to do this so you are caught in a catch 22. Due to job responsibilities this last year I was an occasional seller, one bad mark and I am suspended for ONE YEAR....they don't tell you that..they keep saying thirty days. Truth is if you don't want my money as a seller I won't be buying either. I have had ENOUGH!

What's Ahead for eBay, Ecommerce in 2009   What's Ahead for eBay, Ecommerce in 2009

by: Loops

Sun Dec 21 11:59:19 2008

There are Ebay alternatives. The U.S. government is going to put ecommerce out of business, not eBay. The local governments do not like the internet, because it competes with their big brick and mortar businesses. They obviously didn't do the math. Alot of these small local businesses have built their enterprises in town and have used the internet to pad sales. Don't yell at Ebay for this one. I know it's hard to come on Auctionbytes and not mention Ebay, but it's regulation that is going to hurt you this time!

What's Ahead for eBay, Ecommerce in 2009   What's Ahead for eBay, Ecommerce in 2009

by: fosterwillis

Sun Dec 21 12:50:02 2008

The BEST thing that could happen to ebay now is for Donnahoe, his ego, his arrogance and his STUPID "Disruptive Innovation" to be escorted to the ebay exit (with a huge hardy kick in the arse)!  Donahoe is nothing more than a criminal in a big office, robbing people of their businesses and reputations with his insane new policies.  Instead of sitting in his own office, he should be sitting in a shrinks office to discover why he's gets so much pleasure out of hurting others.  

Wonder how he would feel if HE were rated with DSRs?  Right now, his own employees rate him with the equivalent of a 1.0 DSR on their evaluation of his performance as ebay's CEO.  See http://www.glassdoor.com/Reviews/eBay-Reviews-E7853.htm

Oh, and by the way, the employees who have written glowing comments about their boss on these comment sections have been ratted out before.  I guess some people will do anything to save their jobs, while losing their integrity.

http://www.petitiononline.com/jdonohoe/petition.html

What's Ahead for eBay, Ecommerce in 2009   What's Ahead for eBay, Ecommerce in 2009

by: justme

Sun Dec 21 13:09:41 2008

I think eBay stores will no longer exist.  I got an email stating that they are closing their eBay stores affiliate program effective 12/31/08.

What's Ahead for eBay, Ecommerce in 2009   What's Ahead for eBay, Ecommerce in 2009

by: kim

Sun Dec 21 13:54:59 2008

It might as well be "What policies would you HATE to see ebay change in 2009?" Because that's probably the best prediction of what they will do.

I would hate to see eBay get rid of stores and force everyone to use the higher priced (listing & FVF)30 day fixed.

Or perhaps there will still be stores but priced much higher or tiered and your placement in "best match" is determined by what level you purchased. So the large sellers purchase their placement, always way above any small seller.

What's Ahead for eBay, Ecommerce in 2009   What's Ahead for eBay, Ecommerce in 2009

by: Herschel

Sun Dec 21 15:11:33 2008

I've said it before and I'll say it again.  It does not take long before any Old Mean Dog will realize that you can't bite the hand that feeds you. The Small Seller has been the hand that fed eBay and made it what it is today. Thanks

What's Ahead for eBay, Ecommerce in 2009   What's Ahead for eBay, Ecommerce in 2009

by: Robert

Sun Dec 21 17:25:02 2008

Let's not forget the fact that before Donahoe came to ebay, he worked 20 years with Baines Management firm where his claim to fame was helping big corporation go bankrupt legally along with dismantling, divesting and selling off parts of companies at a loss for tax purposes.

IMHO,  I think Doanhoe is probably working a deal with some/most/all the companies on Ebay's shopping.com to set up on Ebay marketplace, and then sell of shopping.com once they can get all that arranged.

Have you ever noticed the financial analyst and media hardly ever mention Ebay's shopping.com business? The media and analyst talk alot about paypal, skype, kijiji, CL and all Ebay's most recent business acquisitions, but rarely a mention of shopping.com.

Something tells me that once they have operation catalog fully operational for all listing categories...the entire site with be a fixed price only, pay-per-click (adcommerce) shopping comparison portal design exclusively for the big internet retailers advertsing on shopping.com and the largest ebay vendors currently on the site (handpicked by Ebay)..... and then they'll spin off their shopping.com site.

Shopping.com doesnt have nearly the brand name recognition and only gets about 1/10 the monthly traffic ebay gets on this site.

I honestly believe oonahoe has full intentions of disolving auctions COMPLETELY by the end of 2009, and only those sellers invited to stay will be permited to sell on ebay's marketplace platform at that time.

That's my bet! Any takers?

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